Methodology
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We define “whales” as the top 1% of Polymarket wallets ranked by calibrated ROI — not raw profit-and-loss. Raw PnL favors large wallets regardless of skill; calibrated ROI normalizes for capital deployed, rewarding consistent profitability over sheer size.
Approximately 40% of large Polymarket traders control 5+ wallets. Without clustering, one trader's $500K position split across 30 wallets appears as 30 independent small traders — systematically undercounting true position size and conviction.
SightWhale clusters wallets by shared deposit addresses on Polygon: when multiple wallets receive funds from the same source address within a defined time window, they are grouped as a single trading entity. This is the same technique used by on-chain analytics firms like Nansen and Chainalysis for entity resolution.
Every trade receives a composite 0-100 score based on four weighted factors:
| Factor | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Trader Win Rate | 35% | Rolling 30/60/90-day windows; higher weight on recent performance |
| Trade Size vs. Market Depth | 30% | Trade size normalized against 24h market volume; larger relative size = higher conviction signal |
| Market Context | 20% | Directional bet vs. hedging vs. liquidity provision; directional bets weighted highest |
| Time Decay | 15% | Recency bonus for signals delivered within minutes of on-chain confirmation |
Higher scores correlate with higher win rates in backtests. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
All trade data is sourced from the Polymarket CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) on the Polygon blockchain. We ingest matched-order events via the Polymarket API and the Polygon RPC. Our data pipeline processes approximately 50,000-150,000 trades per day across 500+ active markets.
All performance statistics cited on the site — including win rates, average ROI, and total PnL — are calculated from resolved markets only and reflect the complete public history available on the History page. Key definitions: