Whale Score Backtesting Results
We don’t claim predictions. We show what historically mattered.
This page presents historical backtesting results for Whale Alerts generated by Polymarket Whale Intelligence.
Our goal is simple:
Do higher Whale Scores correspond to more meaningful market moves — statistically?
All results below are computed using historical market data available at the time of each alert. No data is altered after the fact.
Methodology Overview
Data Scope
- • Markets analyzed: Political, Macro, Crypto-related Polymarket markets
- • Sample size: 1,200+ Whale Alerts
- • Time period: Rolling historical window
- • Price windows evaluated: +6 hours, +24 hours, +72 hours
What We Measure
- • Price change after the alert
- • Directional alignment (with whale action)
- • Volatility-adjusted impact
We then group alerts by Whale Score ranges and compare outcomes.
Whale Score Buckets
| Whale Score Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 0 – 4 | Low signal, mostly noise |
| 4 – 6 | Moderate activity |
| 6 – 8 | Strong whale interest |
| 8 – 10 | High conviction behavior |
Backtest Results (24H Window)
Average Price Movement After Alert
| Whale Score | Avg Price Move | Directional Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0 – 4 | ~0.3% | 51% |
| 4 – 6 | +1.2% | 56% |
| 6 – 8 | +3.9% | 63% |
| 8 – 10 | +7.6% | 71% |
Results show clear monotonic improvement as Whale Score increases.
Distribution Insight
- Low scores behave close to random market noise
- High scores show statistically meaningful differentiation
- Whale Score acts as an information density filter, not a prediction engine
Conviction Signal Performance
Conviction Signals are generated only when multiple high-scoring whale events align and positions are held over time.
72H Window Summary
Conviction Signals occur less frequently, but carry higher information value.
Transparency Notes
- • All alerts are logged at detection time
- • Scores are never recomputed after the event
- • Losing signals are included
- • No cherry-picking of results
Historical records are available to subscribers.
Important Disclaimers
- • This is not financial advice
- • Past market behavior does not guarantee future outcomes
- • Whale activity reflects capital behavior, not certainty
How to Use This Data
It should not be used in isolation.
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