Public calibration report
Whale Score calibration
Every SightWhale alert carries a Whale Score (0–100). This page shows how those scores have actually performed — win rate and average ROI per score band, computed from settled signals only. If a score band stops predicting outcomes, the numbers here will show it. That's the point.
Total signals published
18,358
| Score band | Conviction label | Signals | Settled | Win rate | Avg ROI |
|---|
| 90–100 | Elite conviction | 1,342 | 66 | +66.7% | +9.3% |
| 80–89 | High conviction | 15,875 | 196 | +63.3% | +0.9% |
| 70–79 | Medium conviction | 1,111 | 30 | +56.7% | +4.6% |
| 0–69 | Baseline | 0 | 0 | — | — |
How to read this
- Win rate is the share of settled signals in the band whose trade direction was profitable (realized PnL ≥ $0.01).
- Avg ROI is the mean of realized PnL ÷ trade size across settled signals in the band.
- Bands with small settled counts are statistically noisy — treat a 3-for-5 record very differently from a 400-for-600 record.
- A score is calibrated when higher bands consistently show higher win rates and ROI than lower bands. We publish the numbers regardless.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Polymarket trading involves risk, and these statistics describe historical settled signals — they are decision support, not investment advice.