SightWhale Blog
阅读中文Deep dives into Polymarket prediction markets, whale strategies, and data insights. Updated daily.
When Volume Is a Trap: Measuring ‘Toxic Flow’ vs Informational Flow
High volume doesn’t mean smart money. In CLOB markets, the key is flow quality: toxic (adverse selection) versus informational (price discovery). This post shows how to measure adverse selection using trades + mid-price reactions, build a followability filter for whale alerts, and reproduce it with public Polymarket APIs.
Whale Position Lifecycle: Entry → Defense → Unwind (and How to Detect Each Phase)
Whale edges don’t decay on a timer—they move through a lifecycle. This guide frames Polymarket trading as a position state machine and shows how to detect Entry, Defense, and Unwind phases using net position changes, trade structure, and closed-position PnL you can verify via Polymarket’s public APIs.
Maker vs Taker on Polymarket: When Paying the Spread Is Actually Optimal
“Always use limit orders” is bad advice on a fast CLOB. Sometimes crossing the spread is cheaper than waiting. This post builds an execution-cost model that combines spread, depth, fee curves, fill probability, and opportunity cost—then shows how to validate it with Polymarket’s public APIs.
Execution Alpha on Polymarket: Slippage, Spread, and Why Mid Price Lies
Most traders lose money on Polymarket without being wrong. The culprit is execution: spread, depth, and fee curves that turn the midpoint into a comforting fiction. This guide shows how to estimate execution cost from order book snapshots and how to choose maker vs taker in a way you can reproduce.
Wallet Clustering 101: When 50 Wallets Are One Trader
On Polymarket, performance can be distorted when one operator spreads activity across many wallets. This article lays out practical clustering signals—timing sync, market overlap, side consistency, and funding flows—plus the failure modes that create false positives. It also explains how clustering changes alert quality and win-rate statistics.
Alert Calibration: Choosing Thresholds That Don’t Overfit (A Backtesting Playbook)
If your whale alerts feel noisy, the fix isn’t another heuristic—it’s calibration. This playbook shows how to choose alert thresholds using precision/recall, stratified backtests (by liquidity, market category, and regime), and out-of-sample validation so you don’t tune to yesterday’s tape.
Noise Control on Polymarket: Practical Rules to Spot Wash Trading & Bait Prints
Alerts are only as good as the tape. Learn practical rules to spot wash trading, self-trading, and bait prints on Polymarket, with a checklist you can verify.
Reading Polymarket as a Portfolio: Cross‑Market Hedging & Arbitrage Baskets
Stop treating Polymarket like single bets. Build hedge baskets, map correlated markets, and verify cross‑market mispricings using public order book data.
The Signal Half-Life: Why Following Whales Too Late is a Losing Strategy
We analyzed 50,000+ Polymarket trades to calculate the 'expiration date' of whale signals. Here's how to know if a signal is still fresh or if you're just exit liquidity.