Deep dives into Polymarket prediction markets, whale strategies, and data insights. Updated daily.
How large capital flows shape political prediction markets and what it means for accuracy.
Polymarket’s Trump–Macron call market: based on resolution rules and credible reporting consensus, we assess whether an in‑person or phone/video interaction occurs within January.
The odds on the first Trump Cabinet departure have shifted violently. Following the Minneapolis incident, Secretary Noem is now the betting favorite. Here's the data.