Deep dives into Polymarket prediction markets, whale strategies, and data insights. Updated daily.
Signal half-life tells you how fast information decays in the market. This post tackles a different problem: the seconds-to-minutes gap between an on-chain fill and the moment you read the alert—and why treating that gap honestly changes sizing, limits, and when you skip a trade entirely.
You got the Telegram ping. Now what? This checklist turns a whale alert into a repeatable decision: verify context, size for liquidity, separate signal from habit, and know when to ignore the trade entirely.
“Always use limit orders” is bad advice on a fast CLOB. Sometimes crossing the spread is cheaper than waiting. This post builds an execution-cost model that combines spread, depth, fee curves, fill probability, and opportunity cost—then shows how to validate it with Polymarket’s public APIs.