Deep dives into Polymarket prediction markets, whale strategies, and data insights. Updated daily.
A technical guide to backtesting on Polymarket: required data, leakage-safe methodology, execution modeling, and how Whale and Smart Money features fit historical research—without mistaking a pretty curve for live edge.
If your whale alerts feel noisy, the fix isn’t another heuristic—it’s calibration. This playbook shows how to choose alert thresholds using precision/recall, stratified backtests (by liquidity, market category, and regime), and out-of-sample validation so you don’t tune to yesterday’s tape.