Deep dives into Polymarket prediction markets, whale strategies, and data insights. Updated daily.
In correlated Polymarket markets, not all prices are equal. Some markets lead price discovery; others follow with a delay. This post lays out a practical lead–lag workflow (cross-correlation plus a simplified causality check) you can reproduce using public price endpoints—then shows how to turn “leader flow” into actionable trades.
High volume doesn’t mean smart money. In CLOB markets, the key is flow quality: toxic (adverse selection) versus informational (price discovery). This post shows how to measure adverse selection using trades + mid-price reactions, build a followability filter for whale alerts, and reproduce it with public Polymarket APIs.
Whale edges don’t decay on a timer—they move through a lifecycle. This guide frames Polymarket trading as a position state machine and shows how to detect Entry, Defense, and Unwind phases using net position changes, trade structure, and closed-position PnL you can verify via Polymarket’s public APIs.