SightWhale Blog
阅读中文Deep dives into Polymarket prediction markets, whale strategies, and data insights. Updated daily.
Cross-Market Price Discovery: Which Market Leads, Which Follows, and Why
In correlated Polymarket markets, not all prices are equal. Some markets lead price discovery; others follow with a delay. This post lays out a practical lead–lag workflow (cross-correlation plus a simplified causality check) you can reproduce using public price endpoints—then shows how to turn “leader flow” into actionable trades.
When Volume Is a Trap: Measuring ‘Toxic Flow’ vs Informational Flow
High volume doesn’t mean smart money. In CLOB markets, the key is flow quality: toxic (adverse selection) versus informational (price discovery). This post shows how to measure adverse selection using trades + mid-price reactions, build a followability filter for whale alerts, and reproduce it with public Polymarket APIs.
Whale Position Lifecycle: Entry → Defense → Unwind (and How to Detect Each Phase)
Whale edges don’t decay on a timer—they move through a lifecycle. This guide frames Polymarket trading as a position state machine and shows how to detect Entry, Defense, and Unwind phases using net position changes, trade structure, and closed-position PnL you can verify via Polymarket’s public APIs.